Tuesday, August 7, 2012

08/08/2012 stocks news

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UBS upgraded Indian stocks to “overweight” citing attractive valuations compared with growth markets in Southeast Asia and an improving trade balance that could help improve domestic liquidity conditions.

Although the investment bank warned the country still faces a number of challenges, including politics and potential problems in the balance of payments, it recommended investors continue to bet on India. “We think the risk is worth it - that either improved risk appetite globally helps lower domestic rates, or that in the coming months an improving trade balance does the same,” UBS said.

“As such, we think liquidity will improve and by interacting with sensible earnings estimates (that have as much risk as elsewhere in the region in our view) and attractive valuations, should help India perform better in relative terms,” it added.

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STOCK MARKET ON VERGE OF BIGGEST BULL RUN OF LIFE TIME IN HISORY

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India is expected to grow at 6.1 per cent in calendar year (CY) 2012, similar to the pace recorded in the fourth quarter of 2011, accroding to the Ernst & Young's quarterly Rapid Growth Markets Forecast (RGMF).

Growth should be picking up in H2, 2012, provided the global economy does not experience a further shock. Over the medium term, we expect a strong recovery in investment, which will help lift overall GDP growth over 9 per cent by 2014, it said.

"India's domestic demand-driven growth model is acting as a catalyst for attracting foreign investments into the country.

Although the ongoing global uncertainty may have prompted global investors to become more cautious, India's inherent advantages and proven resilience to counter-act macroeconomic challenges generally outweighs these concerns.

According to the forecast, in India, the biggest development will be in the lower middle class with the number of households with disposable income of USD 5,000 to USD 15,000 rising to around 150 million in 2020 from just under 100 million now. In particular, this represents opportunities for companies in the developed economy such as US and Europe for investments.

While the purchasing managers Index (PMI) and car sales data in January and February of 2012 have hinted at a stronger growth dynamic for India, the country will need to address rising inflation, which is still high.

As per the forecast, the country's central bank will not be in a position to cut interest rates until core inflation (excluding food) is on a clear downtrend and that may still be some months off, particularly as the economy has recently gained considerable momentum.

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