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Buy Wockhardt Ltd For Target Rs.1,685.00

  TECHNICAL PICKS
POSITIONAL PICK
WOCKHARDT (LTP: 1,498) BUY
Thus, for today's trade, long position can be initiated only in Rs1,470-1,440 range for target of Rs1,685 with a stop loss of Rs1,370.


Wockhardt, witnessed sharp sell-off from the peak of Rs2,000 to a low of Rs1,177 before bouncing back to a high of Rs1,594. Since then, stock has witnessed narrow range consolidation below its 50 day exponential moving average (EMA). However, since last one week, we have seen stock stabilizing above its 50 days EMA that is currently placed at Rs1,437. MACD above the neutral mark combined with RSI above 50 indicates strength in the stock. We anticipate stock to make a fresh move towards level of Rs1,685 provided stock manages to stay above level of Rs1,371 (i.e. 23.6% retracement of the previous move).
Thus, for today's trade, long position can be initiated only in Rs1,470-1,440 range for target of Rs1,685 with a stop loss of Rs1,370.
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Derivative Ideas For Apollo Tyres Ltd Target 194-197

Derivative Ideas
APOLLO TYRE
Futures Buy It has closed above its 200 DEMA with high volumes today. Daily momentum oscillators like RSI and MACD showing positive divergence. In Addition it has broken its long term downward slopping trend line. We believe that the stock will outperform in coming sessions.
Strategy:- BUY APOLLO TYRES FUT BET 181-182.50 FOR A TGT OF 194-197 SL 175.

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 Buy Dish TV India Ltd For Target Rs.118.00

 Buy Dish TV India Ltd @ 109-110 Stoploss 105.50 Target  118 CMP 109.40

 It has been consolidating between 100-108 range for last three weeks and witnessed an upside breakout from the same today with decent rise in volume, all this indicates resumption of prevailing uptrend.
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BIG BOSS

VIKAS PARSHURAM SAMWATSARE

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Buy ICICI Bank Ltd For Target Rs.394.00

  ICICI Bank closed 0.5% higher in a weak market yesterday, outperforming the benchmark NIFTY by 2.3%. We expect the bank to report healthy growth in balance sheet along with strong growth in operating profit. Over the last few years, the bank has proven its competitive advantages over other private banks through higher fee income generation capability, well-managed assets quality and better managed other financial business subsidiaries. ICICI Bank is well placed to capitalize on the expected improvement in the economic cycle, as it has leadership position in both retail and corporate banking segments. We have a BUY recommendation on the stock with a SOTP based Target Pr ice of Rs394, wherein the standalone bank has been valued at 2x FY17E Adj. BV of Rs352 and the subsidiaries fetch Rs42/share after factoring in holding company discount of 20%.
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Buy AIA Engineering Ltd For Target Rs.1340.00

AIA Engineering Ltd. manufactures and markets a wide range of High Chromium consumable wear parts (mill internals) which are used in the process of Crushing/Grinding in the Cement, Mining, Thermal power & Aggregate Industries.
*  Net profit for the Dec quarter ramps up by 73.70% yo- y of Rs. 1150.43 mn against Rs. 662.32 mn, when compared with the prior year period.
*  During the Dec quarter of FY15, Net sales were at Rs. 5143.11 mn compared to Rs. 5262.24 mn during the corresponding quarter last year.
*  Operating profit increased by 31.92% to Rs. 1755.31 mn for the 3rd quarter of FY15 when compared to Rs. 1330.60 mn for the corresponding quarter of previous year.
*  Earnings per Share for the company were Rs. 12.20 compared to Rs. 7.02 in Q3 FY14, registered 73.70% growth.
*  Other income grown by 81.93% y-o-y of Rs. 233.01 mn in Q3 FY15 as compared to Rs. 128.08 mn in Q3 FY14.
*  During Q3 FY15, Profit before Tax increased by 69.75% to Rs. 1565.13 mn from Rs. 922.01 mn over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
*  The Company has entered into a Manufacturing Agreement with Steelcast Limited, Bhavnagar.
*  Net profit grown by 54.96% to Rs. 3182.55 mn for the end of 9M FY15 from Rs. 2053.78 mn for the end of 9M FY14.
*  Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% and 32% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.

QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (CONSOLIDATED)
Results updates- Q3 FY15,
The company’s Net profit for the Dec quarter ramps up by 73.70% y-o-y of Rs. 1150.43 mn against Rs. 662.32 mn, when compared with the prior year period. Net sales were at Rs. 5143.11 mn compared to Rs. 5262.24 mn during the corresponding quarter last year. Reported earnings per share of the company stood at Rs.12.20 a share during the quarter, registering 73.70% increase over previous year period. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs. 1755.31 million as against Rs. 1330.60 million in the corresponding period of the previous year.

OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
*  At the current market price of Rs. 1196.60, the stock P/E ratio is at 25.34 x FY15E and 22.97 x FY16E respectively.
*  Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E is seen at Rs. 47.23 and Rs 52.10 respectively.
*  Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% and 32% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.
*  On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 15.21 x for FY15E and 13.90 x for FY16E.
*  Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 5.22 x and 4.49 x respectively for FY15E and FY16E.
*  We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs. 1340.00 for Medium to Long term investment.
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 Buy Centum Electronics Ltd For Target Rs.835.00

Centum Electronics Ltd was established in 1993 to provide microelectronic circuits, frequency control products and complex manufacturing solutions to international and domestic electronics companies.
*  Net sales of the company registered to 16.19% increase and stood at Rs. 1302.84 million in Q3 FY15 against Rs. 1121.33 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
*  For Q3 FY15, net profit Jumps to Rs. 111.96 million from Rs. 99.08 million for the Q3 FY14, Registered a growth of 13% y-o-y.
*  Operating profit grew by 31.61% y-o-y of Rs. 303.89 million in Q3 FY15, against Rs. 230.90 million in corresponding quarter of previous year.
*  Profit before tax (PBT) at Rs. 254.87 million in Q3 FY15 compared to Rs. 181.57 million in Q3 FY14, registered a growth of 74.28% y-o-y.
*  The company has declared an interim dividend of Re. 1.00/- per share on face value of Rs. 10.00/- each for the financial year 2014-15.
*  In Q3 FY15, Revenue from Electronic manufacturing services division is Rs. 622.72 million, an increase of 3% compared to Rs. 605.75 million in Q3 FY14.
*  Centum Electronics has received new orders worth Rs. 1000.00 mn from an Indian Defence Enterprise.
*  For nine months ended of FY15, the company registered a growth of 16.19% in Net sales to Rs. 3637.21 million from Rs. 3130.50 million for nine months ended of FY14.
*  Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 26% and 90% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.

QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (CONSOLIDATED)
Results updates- Q3 FY15,
Centum Electronics Ltd is a globally recognized electronics company with strong presence in the Defence & Aerospace, Space, Industrial, Medical and Telecom industry segments. The company has reported its financial results for the quarter ended 31st December, 2014.
The company has achieved a turnover of Rs. 1302.84 million for the 3rd quarter of the financial year 2014-15 as against Rs. 1121.33 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company has reported an EBITDA of Rs. 303.89 million, increased by 31.61% over corresponding quarter of previous year. In Q3 FY15, net profit was at Rs. 111.96 million compared to Rs. 99.08 million in Q3 FY14. The company has reported an EPS of Rs. 8.94 for the 3rd quarter as against an EPS of Rs. 8.01 in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
*  At the current market price of Rs.761.00, the stock P/E ratio is at 24.23 x FY15E and 21.72 x FY16E respectively.
*  Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E is seen at Rs.31.41 and Rs.35.03 respectively.
*  Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 26% and 90% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.
*  On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 9.49 x for FY15E and 8.44 x for FY16E.
*  Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 5.73 x and 4.65 x respectively for FY15E and FY16E.
*  We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.835.00 for Medium to Long term investment.
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ALL TIPS ARE SHORT TERM
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ALL RIGHT  SAI PARSDAM 2014-15

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DATED 21/04/2015
Buy Hindustan Unilever Ltd For Target Rs.1000.00

  Buy NTPC Ltd For Target Rs.166.00 


 Buy Gujarat Gas Company Ltd For Target Rs.780.00 


Buy Indag Rubber Ltd For Target Rs.1,234.00

 Buy Federal Bank Ltd For Target Rs.167.00
 
 Accumulate KEC International Ltd For Target Rs.123.00

23/05/2014Buy Emami Ltd For Target Rs.488

Emami Ltd, a personal products company, has strong network of 3500 distributors and 5600 subdistributors, market presence across 75 countries across the world including India.
*  The company’s net sales stood at a record of Rs. 4457.10 million from Rs. 4509.50 million over the corresponding quarter last year.
*  Net profit after taxes, Minority Interest and Share of Profit of Associates of Rs. 1111.50 million for the quarter ended Q4 FY14 as compared to Rs. 939.80 million for the quarter ended Q4 FY13.
*  The Company has recommended a final Dividend of @ 400% on equity shares i.e. Rs. 4.00/- per share on face value of Rs. 1.00/- each for the financial year 2013-14.
*  The company plans to launch about 7-8 brands regarding personal products and Healthcare products during 2014-15.
*  Emami Limited has won the ET BENGAL CORPORATE AWARDS 2014 in the category of Best Financial Performance with turnover exceeding Rs.10000.00 million..
*  Net profit grew by 28% for the end of the FY14 to Rs 4024.70 million as against Rs 3147.40 million in the corresponding period of previous year.
* Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% and 20% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (Consolidated)
Results updates- Q4 FY14,
Emami Ltd has strong network of 3500 distributors and 5600 sub-distributors, with a direct reach across 6,00,000 retail outlets, availability of products across 40,00,000 outlets, market presence across 75 countries across the world including India, has reported its financial results for the 4th quarter ended 31st MARCH, 2014.
Emami Ltd has achieved a turnover of Rs. 4457.10 million for the 4th quarter of the current year 2013-14 as against Rs. 4509.50 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company has reported an EBITDA of Rs. 1355.60 million against Rs. 1442.60 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. In Q4 FY14, net profit showed a good performance in both domestic and international market of Rs. 1111.50 million against Rs. 939.80 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company has reported an EPS of Rs. 4.90 for the 4th quarter as against an EPS of Rs. 6.21 in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
*   At the current market price of Rs. 443.45, the stock P/E ratio is at 21.23 x FY15E and 18.74 x FY16E respectively.
*  Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E is seen at Rs.20.88 and Rs.23.66 respectively.
*   Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% and 20% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.
*   On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 15.69 x for FY15E and 14.21 x for FY16E.
*   Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 9.26 x and 8.11 x respectively for FY15E and FY16E.
*   We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.488.00 for Medium to Long term investment.
 Buy Ashoka Buildcon Ltd For Target Rs.125

EBITDA at Rs1.27 bn +17.7% YoY (vs estimate of Rs1.17 bn, as E&C EBITDA grew by 17%, margin at 16.2% up 380bps YoY, BOT EBITDA edged higher by 19% YoY, margin contracts
*   APAT at Rs250 mn (+2.6% YoY) in line with estimate supported by higher other income which offsets the increase in the capital cost. Reported exceptional expense towards write back of Ahmedabad Karmala project of Rs156 mn.
*   Upgraded FY15E EPS by 20% on higher construction revenue and traffic growth , roll forward Earnings of construction and BOT to FY15, revises target price to Rs125
*   Well funded portfolio, sufficient internal cash flows to cater current equity requirement with moderate leverage , Biggest beneficiary of new road projects to be tendered out in FY15E Maintain Buy
Q4FY14 operational performance above estimate
Q4FY14 E&C EBITDA grew by 17.2% at Rs845 mn and clocked an EBITDA margin of 16.2% expanded by 380 bps however E&C revenue came in at Rs4.97 bn declined by 10.2% versus estimate of Rs5.1bn. EBITDA margin expanded led by downward revision of expenses in some road projects. Construction revenue declined as execution of some of the power projects like Maharashtra T&D (Rs5.4 bn ), T&D project Tamil Nadu (Rs6.90 bn), execution also got delayed on some portion of Dhankuni Kharagpur road project due to pending clearances related ROBs. Revenue from the power division declined by 35% to Rs1850 mn.
Gross Toll Collection at Rs1.98 bn + 18.5% YoY, +8% QoQ
BOT segment witnessed revenue growth of 25.4% at Rs855 mn higher than estimate of 730 mn. However EBITDA margin contract at 50.6% down 270 bps due to lower traffic growth (O&M expense/fixed cost remaining the same).Blended EBITDA margin remained at 21% expands 430 bps due to lower contribution from construction division as well as higher contribution from BOT segment. The other income surged higher by 61% on account of interest income (Rs40 mn ) the company received for a loan given Jaora Naygaon Road project (Associate Company) as well dividend income came from road projects Viva Highways , Katni bypass. Higher other income partially offsets the higher than expected capital cost (Interest, depreciation). Reported profit includes exceptional expense towards write back of Ahmedabad Karmala project amounts to Rs156 mn. The effective tax rate came in at 49% higher than estimate of 46%.
Equity requirement of Rs1bn over the next 2-3 years
The current equity requirement stands at Rs1.5 bn which is needed to get infused over the next two to three years. The company needs to infuse Rs400mn in Dhankuni Kharagpur, Rs280mn in KSHIP road project, Rs100 mn in Sambalpur, and Rs300 mn in Chennai ORR project. The company has received 4th tranche of Investment of Rs1.33 bn from SBI Macquarie. The company also paid total Dividend of 30% - Rs. 1.50 per shares for FY14.
Maintain Buy – Revised target price to Rs125/share
Project execution on Dhankuni Kharagpur remains on track and toll rates escalation at Dhankuni Kharagpur project ahead of schedule will provide additional boost. We have revised the value for out BOT projects to Rs77 from Rs46/ share as we have roll forward earnings for BOT projects to FY15E. The major changed led by Dhankuni Kharagpur to Rs43.5/share (earlier Rs20/share). Sambhalpur – Baragarh to Rs22/ share from Rs10/share, Jaora Naygaon to Rs19/share from Rs14/share. We have valued the BOT projects at 14%/15.5% cost of equity for operational/ under construction / under development portfolio. While the E&C arm is valued at Rs 46 at 6x FY15 earnings.
  Buy Goodyear India Ltd For Target Rs.510 

For 1QCY2014, Goodyear India (GIL) reported a strong set of numbers. Its top-line surged by 15% yoy to `387cr, 10.6% higher than our estimate of `350cr. The EBITDA came in higher at `40cr, up 30.4% yoy; while margins expanded by 120bp yoy to 10.2%, mainly due to lower employee costs and other expenses (as a percentage of sales). On the back of efficient operating performance coupled with a 57.1% yoy increase in other income to `11cr, the net profit for the quarter grew 34.9% yoy to `28cr, in-line with our estimates.
Tractor tyre demand to drive future growth: GIL is a market leader in the tractor tyre industry. Tractor tyres accounted for ~60% of the company’s tonnage offtake in CY2012. As per industry reports, tractor sales are likely to grow in the range of 7-9% over CY2014-15E. Thus, we expect GIL to register a 6.3% CAGR in revenue over CY2013-15E.
Outlook and valuation:

On the back of strong growth in tractor tyre market and decline in rubber prices, earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of ~11.9% over CY2013-15E to `118cr in CY2015E. Moreover, we forecast GIL’s CY2015E cash reserves to be at `439cr, which is ~47% of its current market capitalization. At the current levels, the stock is trading at a PE of 8.0x its CY2015E earnings and P/BV of 1.6x for CY2015E. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `510 based on SOTP valuation.