Monday, July 11, 2011
12/07/2011 STOCK NEWS
SAI PARSADAM
vikassamwatsare@yahoo.com
We Dare To Predict.......
Where Dreams Come True......
YES!!!!
Developed markets headed for prolonged bear phase, emerging markets’ currencies and equities may come out unscathed.
Six months is a long time for market cycles. Not so long ago (last December, to be precise), celebrity strategists at foreign brokerages were betting on the revival of growth in the US. This resulted in rotation of funds from “expensive” emerging markets (EM) like India at the start of the calendar year. By February, the same strategists were writing the obituary of quantitative easing round two, as key macro-economic data belied their assumption. As we now know it, the recovery was a jobless one.
With the second round of quantitative easing failing to revive corporate growth, the world’s largest economy is preparing for a prolonged bear phase. Along with QE2, some long-standing distortions in asset prices (caused by excess liquidity) will also end due to structural changes. CLSA’s celebrated strategist Russel Napier calls it the “great reset”. He says: “The structural change associated with this ‘great reset’ could reduce the S&P500 to below its March 2009 lows — and potentially to 400.”
The primary reason behind this reset is falling demand for US Treasuries. For long, central banks around the world have invested a substantial portion of their reserves in US T-bills. Until 2010, foreign central banks were buyers of at least 40 per cent of total treasury issuance, but in the first quarter of 2011, these central banks have purchased merely 16 per cent of the issuance, while the Federal Reserve bought almost 200 per cent of total issuance.
Demand for US Treasury bills has a direct impact on asset prices. Over the last 10 years, strong demand for US T-Bills drove yields down, which had an impact on the cost of credit. Thus, low-cost debt boosted corporate earnings and economic growth. With foreign central banks moving to other currencies and safe havens, the US’s fiscal deficit will have to now be funded by the private sector. This also marks an end to the era of cheap money.
What does all this mean for emerging markets like India? Clearly, developed economies are in for difficult times. In contrast, as monetary policy action peaks in India, the investment cycle will revive and equities become viable again. Policy options in the developed world are limited and much less effective, says Napier in his report. He adds that investors should sit out this ‘great reset’ in currencies like the Singapore dollar and “move into EM government debt soon after. As EM monetary policy begins to ease, it will be a good time to move to EM equities”.
Think Big TO EARN BIGGG from big boss vikas parshuram samwtsare
VIKAS PARSHURAM SAMWATSARE RESEARCH...
1.France's Lagarde is new IMF chief
Yes!!!!
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) board on Tuesday elected French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde as the new managing director of the global lender.
“The executive board of the International Monetary Fund today selected Christine Lagarde to serve as managing director and madame chairman of the executive board for a five-year term starting July 5,” the IMF said in a statement. Her win was assured after emerging powers China, Russia and Brazil declared their support for her. The United States followed, with its endorsement ahead of the meeting of the 24-member board.
Be Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Something not going good in market!!!!
Stay Cautious in Near Term!!!!!
Yes!!!!!!!
You All Know What Happened in Market!!!!!
Always..............track me Brings.......Accurate Idea of market Trends
When Street Talker Barking......
Street Talker Barking.....Nifty Can go 4800...4500...4200 Due to High Crude Price..........
Ongoing Scams Budget Worries
When.....................
1. Insider say Den Network will be next United Spirit of Mr RD.
He is very Bullish on Stock and Consider another United Spirit Like Story he is tipped stock can go 500% to 1000% gain in next 3-4 years.
2.Insider say Some Big Investor Eyeing on Trent & Shopper's Stop for Big Investment.
3..Insider say Timex may come out for Delisting offer at Heavy Premium to Current market Price.
According to a recent report by Morgan Stanley Research on emerging markets , the first half of the year will continue to be difficult in terms of returns but the performance is likely to improve in the second half of the year!!!
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